I play tennis with my parents; the chances for me to win a game against are and against Dad , where . We agreed to have three games, and their order can be (where I play against Dad, then Mum then again Dad) or . The results of games are independent.
Calculate under each of the two orders the probabilities of the following events:
a) that I win at least one game,
b) that I win at least two games,
c) that I win at least two games in succession (i.e., games 1 and 2 or 2 and 3 , or 1 , 2 and 3,
d) that I win exactly two games in succession (i.e., games 1 and 2 or 2 and 3 , but not 1,2 and 3 ),
e) that I win exactly two games (i.e., 1 and 2 or 2 and 3 or 1 and 3 , but not 1,2 and 3.
In each case a)- e) determine which order of games maximizes the probability of the event. In case e) assume in addition that .