2.II.11F

Probability
Part IA, 2006

A normal deck of playing cards contains 52 cards, four each with face values in the set F={A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K}\mathcal{F}=\{A, 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10, J, Q, K\}. Suppose the deck is well shuffled so that each arrangement is equally likely. Write down the probability that the top and bottom cards have the same face value.

Consider the following algorithm for shuffling:

S1: Permute the deck randomly so that each arrangement is equally likely.

S2: If the top and bottom cards do not have the same face value, toss a biased coin that comes up heads with probability pp and go back to step S1\mathrm{S} 1 if head turns up. Otherwise stop.

All coin tosses and all permutations are assumed to be independent. When the algorithm stops, let XX and YY denote the respective face values of the top and bottom cards and compute the probability that X=YX=Y. Write down the probability that X=xX=x for some xFx \in \mathcal{F} and the probability that Y=yY=y for some yFy \in \mathcal{F}. What value of pp will make XX and YY independent random variables? Justify your answer.