Let X1,…,Xn be independent, identically distributed N(μ,σ2) random variables, where μ and σ2 are unknown.
Derive the maximum likelihood estimators μ,σ2 of μ,σ2, based on X1,…,Xn. Show that μ and σ2 are independent, and derive their distributions.
Suppose now it is intended to construct a "prediction interval" I(X1,…,Xn) for a future, independent, N(μ,σ2) random variable X0. We require
P{X0∈I(X1,…,Xn)}=1−α
with the probability over the joint distribution of X0,X1,…,Xn.
Let
Iγ(X1,…,Xn)=(μ−γσ1+n1,μ+γσ1+n1)
By considering the distribution of (X0−μ)/(σn−1n+1), find the value of γ for which P{X0∈Iγ(X1,…,Xn)}=1−α.