A gambler at a horse race has an amount b>0 to bet. The gambler assesses pi, the probability that horse i will win, and knows that si≥0 has been bet on horse i by others, for i=1,2,…,n. The total amount bet on the race is shared out in proportion to the bets on the winning horse, and so the gambler's optimal strategy is to choose (x1,x2,…,xn) so that it maximizes
i=1∑nsi+xipixi subject to i=1∑nxi=b,x1,…,xn≥0
where xi is the amount the gambler bets on horse i. Show that the optimal solution to (1) also solves the following problem:
minimize i=1∑nsi+xipisi subject to i=1∑nxi=b,x1,…,xn≥0
Assume that p1/s1≥p2/s2≥…≥pn/sn. Applying the Lagrangian sufficiency theorem, prove that the optimal solution to (1) satisfies
[You may use the fact that for all λ<0, the minimum of the function x↦s+xps−λx on the non-negative axis 0≤x<∞ is attained at
x(λ)=(−λps−s)+≡max(−λps−s,0).]
Deduce that if b is small enough, the gambler's optimal strategy is to bet on the horses for which the ratio pi/si is maximal. What is his expected gain in this case?