Consider a Markov chain (Xn)n⩾0 on states {0,1,…,r} with transition matrix (Pij), where P0,0=1=Pr,r, so that 0 and r are absorbing states. Let
A=(Xn=0, for some n⩾0),
be the event that the chain is absorbed in 0 . Assume that hi=P(A∣X0=i)>0 for 1⩽i<r.
Show carefully that, conditional on the event A,(Xn)n⩾0 is a Markov chain and determine its transition matrix.
Now consider the case where Pi,i+1=21=Pi,i−1, for 1⩽i<r. Suppose that X0=i,1⩽i<r, and that the event A occurs; calculate the expected number of transitions until the chain is first in the state 0 .