Paper 1, Section II, E

Markov Chains
Part IB, 2010

Let (Xn)n0\left(X_{n}\right)_{n \geqslant 0} be a Markov chain.

(a) What does it mean to say that a state ii is positive recurrent? How is this property related to the equilibrium probability πi\pi_{i} ? You do not need to give a full proof, but you should carefully state any theorems you use.

(b) What is a communicating class? Prove that if states ii and jj are in the same communicating class and ii is positive recurrent then jj is positive recurrent also.

A frog is in a pond with an infinite number of lily pads, numbered 1,2,3,1,2,3, \ldots She hops from pad to pad in the following manner: if she happens to be on pad ii at a given time, she hops to one of pads (1,2,,i,i+1)(1,2, \ldots, i, i+1) with equal probability.

(c) Find the equilibrium distribution of the corresponding Markov chain.

(d) Now suppose the frog starts on pad kk and stops when she returns to it. Show that the expected number of times the frog hops is e(k1)e(k-1) ! where e=2.718e=2.718 \ldots What is the expected number of times she will visit the lily pad k+1k+1 ?