Paper 4, Section II, H

Statistics
Part IB, 2012

From each of 3 populations, nn data points are sampled and these are believed to obey

yij=αi+βi(xijxˉi)+ϵij,j{1,,n},i{1,2,3},y_{i j}=\alpha_{i}+\beta_{i}\left(x_{i j}-\bar{x}_{i}\right)+\epsilon_{i j}, \quad j \in\{1, \ldots, n\}, i \in\{1,2,3\},

where xˉi=(1/n)jxij\bar{x}_{i}=(1 / n) \sum_{j} x_{i j}, the ϵij\epsilon_{i j} are independent and identically distributed as N(0,σ2)N\left(0, \sigma^{2}\right), and σ2\sigma^{2} is unknown. Let yˉi=(1/n)jyij\bar{y}_{i}=(1 / n) \sum_{j} y_{i j}.

(i) Find expressions for α^i\hat{\alpha}_{i} and β^i\hat{\beta}_{i}, the least squares estimates of αi\alpha_{i} and βi\beta_{i}.

(ii) What are the distributions of α^i\hat{\alpha}_{i} and β^i\hat{\beta}_{i} ?

(iii) Show that the residual sum of squares, R1R_{1}, is given by

R1=i=13[j=1n(yijyˉi)2β^i2j=1n(xijxˉi)2]R_{1}=\sum_{i=1}^{3}\left[\sum_{j=1}^{n}\left(y_{i j}-\bar{y}_{i}\right)^{2}-\hat{\beta}_{i}^{2} \sum_{j=1}^{n}\left(x_{i j}-\bar{x}_{i}\right)^{2}\right]

Calculate R1R_{1} when n=9,{α^i}i=13={1.6,0.6,0.8},{β^i}i=13={2,1,1}n=9,\left\{\hat{\alpha}_{i}\right\}_{i=1}^{3}=\{1.6,0.6,0.8\},\left\{\hat{\beta}_{i}\right\}_{i=1}^{3}=\{2,1,1\},

{j=19(yijyˉi)2}i=13={138,82,63},{j=19(xijxˉi)2}i=13={30,60,40}\left\{\sum_{j=1}^{9}\left(y_{i j}-\bar{y}_{i}\right)^{2}\right\}_{i=1}^{3}=\{138,82,63\}, \quad\left\{\sum_{j=1}^{9}\left(x_{i j}-\bar{x}_{i}\right)^{2}\right\}_{i=1}^{3}=\{30,60,40\}

(iv) H0H_{0} is the hypothesis that α1=α2=α3\alpha_{1}=\alpha_{2}=\alpha_{3}. Find an expression for the maximum likelihood estimator of α1\alpha_{1} under the assumption that H0H_{0} is true. Calculate its value for the above data.

(v) Explain (stating without proof any relevant theory) the rationale for a statistic which can be referred to an FF distribution to test H0H_{0} against the alternative that it is not true. What should be the degrees of freedom of this FF distribution? What would be the outcome of a size 0.050.05 test of H0H_{0} with the above data?