Paper 1, Section II, 20H

Markov Chains
Part IB, 2013

A Markov chain has state space {a,b,c}\{a, b, c\} and transition matrix

P=(03/52/53/401/42/31/30)P=\left(\begin{array}{ccc} 0 & 3 / 5 & 2 / 5 \\ 3 / 4 & 0 & 1 / 4 \\ 2 / 3 & 1 / 3 & 0 \end{array}\right)

where the rows 1,2,31,2,3 correspond to a,b,ca, b, c, respectively. Show that this Markov chain is equivalent to a random walk on some graph with 6 edges.

Let k(i,j)k(i, j) denote the mean first passage time from ii to jj.

(i) Find k(a,a)k(a, a) and k(a,b)k(a, b).

(ii) Given X0=aX_{0}=a, find the expected number of steps until the walk first completes a step from bb to cc.

(iii) Suppose the distribution of X0X_{0} is (π1,π2,π3)=(5,4,3)/12\left(\pi_{1}, \pi_{2}, \pi_{3}\right)=(5,4,3) / 12. Let τ(a,b)\tau(a, b) be the least mm such that {a,b}\{a, b\} appears as a subsequence of {X0,X1,,Xm}\left\{X_{0}, X_{1}, \ldots, X_{m}\right\}. By comparing the distributions of {X0,X1,,Xm}\left\{X_{0}, X_{1}, \ldots, X_{m}\right\} and {Xm,,X1,X0}\left\{X_{m}, \ldots, X_{1}, X_{0}\right\} show that Eτ(a,b)=Eτ(b,a)E \tau(a, b)=E \tau(b, a) and that

k(b,a)k(a,b)=i{a,b,c}πi[k(i,a)k(i,b)]k(b, a)-k(a, b)=\sum_{i \in\{a, b, c\}} \pi_{i}[k(i, a)-k(i, b)]