Paper 4, Section II, H

Statistics
Part IB, 2014

Consider a linear model

Y=Xβ+ε\mathbf{Y}=X \boldsymbol{\beta}+\varepsilon

where XX is a known n×pn \times p matrix, β\boldsymbol{\beta} is a p×1(p<n)p \times 1(p<n) vector of unknown parameters and ε\varepsilon is an n×1n \times 1 vector of independent N(0,σ2)N\left(0, \sigma^{2}\right) random variables with σ2\sigma^{2} unknown. Assume that XX has full rank pp. Find the least squares estimator β^\hat{\boldsymbol{\beta}} of β\boldsymbol{\beta} and derive its distribution. Define the residual sum of squares RSSR S S and write down an unbiased estimator σ^2\hat{\sigma}^{2} of σ2\sigma^{2}.

Suppose that Vi=a+bui+δiV_{i}=a+b u_{i}+\delta_{i} and Zi=c+dwi+ηiZ_{i}=c+d w_{i}+\eta_{i}, for i=1,,mi=1, \ldots, m, where uiu_{i} and wiw_{i} are known with i=1mui=i=1mwi=0\sum_{i=1}^{m} u_{i}=\sum_{i=1}^{m} w_{i}=0, and δ1,,δm,η1,,ηm\delta_{1}, \ldots, \delta_{m}, \eta_{1}, \ldots, \eta_{m} are independent N(0,σ2)N\left(0, \sigma^{2}\right) random variables. Assume that at least two of the uiu_{i} are distinct and at least two of the wiw_{i} are distinct. Show that Y=(V1,,Vm,Z1,,Zm)T\mathbf{Y}=\left(V_{1}, \ldots, V_{m}, Z_{1}, \ldots, Z_{m}\right)^{T} (where TT denotes transpose) may be written as in ( \dagger ) and identify XX and β\boldsymbol{\beta}. Find β^\hat{\boldsymbol{\beta}} in terms of the Vi,ZiV_{i}, Z_{i}, uiu_{i} and wiw_{i}. Find the distribution of b^d^\hat{b}-\hat{d} and derive a 95%95 \% confidence interval for bdb-d.

[Hint: You may assume that RSSσ2\frac{R S S}{\sigma^{2}} has a χnp2\chi_{n-p}^{2} distribution, and that β^\hat{\beta} and the residual sum of squares are independent. Properties of χ2\chi^{2} distributions may be used without proof.]