Paper 3, Section II, H

Statistics
Part IB, 2015

(a) Suppose that X1,,XnX_{1}, \ldots, X_{n} are independent identically distributed random variables, each with density f(x)=θexp(θx),x>0f(x)=\theta \exp (-\theta x), x>0 for some unknown θ>0\theta>0. Use the generalised likelihood ratio to obtain a size α\alpha test of H0:θ=1H_{0}: \theta=1 against H1:θ1H_{1}: \theta \neq 1.

(b) A die is loaded so that, if pip_{i} is the probability of face ii, then p1=p2=θ1p_{1}=p_{2}=\theta_{1}, p3=p4=θ2p_{3}=p_{4}=\theta_{2} and p5=p6=θ3p_{5}=p_{6}=\theta_{3}. The die is thrown nn times and face ii is observed xix_{i} times. Write down the likelihood function for θ=(θ1,θ2,θ3)\theta=\left(\theta_{1}, \theta_{2}, \theta_{3}\right) and find the maximum likelihood estimate of θ\theta.

Consider testing whether or not θ1=θ2=θ3\theta_{1}=\theta_{2}=\theta_{3} for this die. Find the generalised likelihood ratio statistic Λ\Lambda and show that

2logeΛT, where T=i=13(oiei)2ei2 \log _{e} \Lambda \approx T, \quad \text { where } T=\sum_{i=1}^{3} \frac{\left(o_{i}-e_{i}\right)^{2}}{e_{i}}

where you should specify oio_{i} and eie_{i} in terms of x1,,x6x_{1}, \ldots, x_{6}. Explain how to obtain an approximate size 0.050.05 test using the value of TT. Explain what you would conclude (and why ) if T=2.03T=2.03.