Paper 2, Section II, H

Markov Chains
Part IB, 2016

(a) Prove that every open communicating class of a Markov chain is transient. Prove that every finite transient communicating class is open. Give an example of a Markov chain with an infinite transient closed communicating class.

(b) Consider a Markov chain (Xn)n0\left(X_{n}\right)_{n \geqslant 0} with state space {a,b,c,d}\{a, b, c, d\} and transition probabilities given by the matrix

P=(1/301/31/301/403/41/21/20002/301/3)P=\left(\begin{array}{cccc} 1 / 3 & 0 & 1 / 3 & 1 / 3 \\ 0 & 1 / 4 & 0 & 3 / 4 \\ 1 / 2 & 1 / 2 & 0 & 0 \\ 0 & 2 / 3 & 0 & 1 / 3 \end{array}\right)

(i) Compute P(Xn=bX0=d)\mathbb{P}\left(X_{n}=b \mid X_{0}=d\right) for a fixed n0n \geqslant 0.

(ii) Compute P(Xn=c\mathbb{P}\left(X_{n}=c\right. for some n1X0=a)\left.n \geqslant 1 \mid X_{0}=a\right).

(iii) Show that PnP^{n} converges as nn \rightarrow \infty, and determine the limit.

[Results from lectures can be used without proof if stated carefully.]