Paper 3, Section I, H

Markov Chains
Part IB, 2018

The mathematics course at the University of Barchester is a three-year one. After the end-of-year examinations there are three possibilities:

(i) failing and leaving (probability pp );

(ii) taking that year again (probability qq );

(iii) going on to the next year (or graduating, if the current year is the third one) (probability rr ).

Thus there are five states for a student (1st \left(1^{\text {st }}\right. year, 2nd 2^{\text {nd }}year, 3rd 3^{\text {rd }}year, left without a degree, graduated).

Write down the 5×55 \times 5 transition matrix. Classify the states, assuming p,q,r(0,1)p, q, r \in(0,1). Find the probability that a student will eventually graduate.