Paper 1, Section II, H

Statistics
Part IB, 2018

(a) Consider the general linear model Y=Xθ+εY=X \theta+\varepsilon where XX is a known n×pn \times p matrix, θ\theta is an unknown p×1p \times 1 vector of parameters, and ε\varepsilon is an n×1n \times 1 vector of independent N(0,σ2)N\left(0, \sigma^{2}\right) random variables with unknown variances σ2\sigma^{2}. Show that, provided the matrix XX is of rank pp, the least squares estimate of θ\theta is

θ^=(XTX)1XTY\hat{\theta}=\left(X^{\mathrm{T}} X\right)^{-1} X^{\mathrm{T}} Y

Let

ε^=YXθ^\hat{\varepsilon}=Y-X \hat{\theta}

What is the distribution of ε^Tε^\hat{\varepsilon}^{\mathrm{T}} \hat{\varepsilon} ? Write down, in terms of ε^Tε^\hat{\varepsilon}^{\mathrm{T}} \hat{\varepsilon}, an unbiased estimator of σ2\sigma^{2}.

(b) Four points on the ground form the vertices of a plane quadrilateral with interior angles θ1,θ2,θ3,θ4\theta_{1}, \theta_{2}, \theta_{3}, \theta_{4}, so that θ1+θ2+θ3+θ4=2π\theta_{1}+\theta_{2}+\theta_{3}+\theta_{4}=2 \pi. Aerial observations Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4Z_{1}, Z_{2}, Z_{3}, Z_{4} are made of these angles, where the observations are subject to independent errors distributed as N(0,σ2)N\left(0, \sigma^{2}\right) random variables.

(i) Represent the preceding model as a general linear model with observations (Z1,Z2,Z3,Z42π)\left(Z_{1}, Z_{2}, Z_{3}, Z_{4}-2 \pi\right) and unknown parameters (θ1,θ2,θ3)\left(\theta_{1}, \theta_{2}, \theta_{3}\right).

(ii) Find the least squares estimates θ^1,θ^2,θ^3\hat{\theta}_{1}, \hat{\theta}_{2}, \hat{\theta}_{3}.

(iii) Determine an unbiased estimator of σ2\sigma^{2}. What is its distribution?