Paper 1, Section II, H

Markov Chains
Part IB, 2019

Let PP be a transition matrix for a Markov chain (Xn)\left(X_{n}\right) on a state space with NN elements with N<N<\infty. Assume that the Markov chain is aperiodic and irreducible and let π\pi be its unique invariant distribution. Assume that X0πX_{0} \sim \pi.

(a) Let P(x,y)=P[X0=yX1=x]P^{*}(x, y)=\mathbb{P}\left[X_{0}=y \mid X_{1}=x\right]. Show that P(x,y)=π(y)P(y,x)/π(x)P^{*}(x, y)=\pi(y) P(y, x) / \pi(x).

(b) Let T=min{n1:Xn=X0}T=\min \left\{n \geqslant 1: X_{n}=X_{0}\right\}. Compute E[T]\mathbb{E}[T] in terms of an explicit function of NN.

(c) Suppose that a cop and a robber start from a common state chosen from π\pi. The robber then takes one step according to PP^{*} and stops. The cop then moves according to PP independently of the robber until the cop catches the robber (i.e., the cop visits the state occupied by the robber). Compute the expected amount of time for the cop to catch the robber.