Paper 1, Section II, H

Markov Chains
Part IB, 2020

Let (Xn)n0\left(X_{n}\right)_{n \geqslant 0} be a Markov chain with transition matrix PP. What is a stopping time of (Xn)n0\left(X_{n}\right)_{n \geqslant 0} ? What is the strong Markov property?

A porter is trying to apprehend a student who is walking along a long narrow path at night. Being unaware of the porter, the student's location YnY_{n} at time n0n \geqslant 0 evolves as a simple symmetric random walk on Z\mathbb{Z}. The porter's initial location Z0Z_{0} is 2m2 m units to the right of the student, so Z0Y0=2mZ_{0}-Y_{0}=2 m where m1m \geqslant 1. The future locations Zn+1Z_{n+1} of the porter evolve as follows: The porter moves to the left (so Zn+1=Zn1Z_{n+1}=Z_{n}-1 ) with probability q(12,1)q \in\left(\frac{1}{2}, 1\right), and to the right with probability 1q1-q whenever ZnYn>2Z_{n}-Y_{n}>2. When ZnYn=2Z_{n}-Y_{n}=2, the porter's probability of moving left changes to r(0,1)r \in(0,1), and the probability of moving right is 1r1-r.

(a) By setting up an appropriate Markov chain, show that for m2m \geqslant 2, the expected time for the porter to be a distance 2(m1)2(m-1) away from the student is 2/(2q1)2 /(2 q-1).

(b) Show that the expected time for the porter to catch the student, i.e. for their locations to coincide, is

2r+(m+1r2)22q1.\frac{2}{r}+\left(m+\frac{1}{r}-2\right) \frac{2}{2 q-1} .

[You may use without proof the fact that the time for the porter to catch the student is finite with probability 1 for any m1m \geqslant 1.]