Paper 2, Section II, 18H

Markov Chains
Part IB, 2021

Let PP be a transition matrix on state space II. What does it mean for a distribution π\pi to be an invariant distribution? What does it mean for π\pi and PP to be in detailed balance? Show that if π\pi and PP are in detailed balance, then π\pi is an invariant distribution.

(a) Assuming that an invariant distribution exists, state the relationship between this and

(i) the expected return time to a state ii;

(ii) the expected time spent in a state ii between visits to a state kk.

(b) Let (Xn)n0\left(X_{n}\right)_{n \geqslant 0} be a Markov chain with transition matrix P=(pij)i,jIP=\left(p_{i j}\right)_{i, j \in I} where I={0,1,2,}I=\{0,1,2, \ldots\}. The transition probabilities are given for i1i \geqslant 1 by

pij={q(i+2) if j=i+1,qi if j=i11q(i+2)qi if j=ip_{i j}= \begin{cases}q^{-(i+2)} & \text { if } j=i+1, \\ q^{-i} & \text { if } j=i-1 \\ 1-q^{-(i+2)}-q^{-i} & \text { if } j=i\end{cases}

where q2q \geqslant 2. For p(0,1]p \in(0,1] let p01=p=1p00p_{01}=p=1-p_{00}. Compute the following, justifying your answers:

(i) The expected time spent in states {2,4,6,}\{2,4,6, \ldots\} between visits to state 1 ;

(ii) The expected time taken to return to state 1 , starting from 1 ;

(iii) The expected time taken to hit state 0 starting from 1.1 .