A4.14

Computational Statistics and Statistical Modelling
Part II, 2001

(i) Assume that independent observations Y1,,YnY_{1}, \ldots, Y_{n} are such that

YiBinomial(ti,πi),logπi1πi=βTxi for 1inY_{i} \sim \operatorname{Binomial}\left(t_{i}, \pi_{i}\right), \log \frac{\pi_{i}}{1-\pi_{i}}=\beta^{T} x_{i} \quad \text { for } 1 \leqslant i \leqslant n

where x1,,xnx_{1}, \ldots, x_{n} are given covariates. Discuss carefully how to estimate β\beta, and how to test that the model fits.

(ii) Carmichael et al. (1989) collected data on the numbers of 5 -year old children with "dmft", i.e. with 5 or more decayed, missing or filled teeth, classified by social class, and by whether or not their tap water was fluoridated or non-fluoridated. The numbers of such children with dmft, and the total numbers, are given in the table below:

\begin{tabular}{l|ll} Social Class & Fluoridated & Non-fluoridated \ \hline I & 12/11712 / 117 & 12/5612 / 56 \ II & 26/17026 / 170 & 48/14648 / 146 \ III & 11/5211 / 52 & 29/6429 / 64 \ Unclassified & 24/11824 / 118 & 49/10449 / 104 \end{tabular}

A (slightly edited) version of the RR output is given below. Explain carefully what model is being fitted, whether it does actually fit, and what the parameter estimates and Std. Errors are telling you. (You may assume that the factors SClass (social class) and Fl (with/without) have been correctly set up.)

 Estimate  Std.  Error  z value  (Intercept) 2.27160.23969.480 SClassII 0.50990.26281.940 SClassIII 0.98570.30213.262 SClassUnc 1.00200.26843.734 Flwithout 1.08130.16946.383\begin{array}{lrrrr} & \text { Estimate } & \text { Std. } & \text { Error } & \text { z value } \\ \text { (Intercept) } & -2.2716 & 0.2396 & -9.480 \\ \text { SClassII } & 0.5099 & 0.2628 & 1.940 \\ \text { SClassIII } & 0.9857 & 0.3021 & 3.262 \\ \text { SClassUnc } & 1.0020 & 0.2684 & 3.734 \\ \text { Flwithout } & 1.0813 & 0.1694 & 6.383\end{array}

Here 'Yes' is the vector of numbers with dmft, taking values 12,12,,24,4912,12, \ldots, 24,49, 'Total' is the vector of Total in each category, taking values 117,56,,118,104117,56, \ldots, 118,104, and SClass, Fl are the factors corresponding to Social class and Fluoride status, defined in the obvious way.