A3.11 B3.16

Stochastic Financial Models
Part II, 2001

(i) Suppose that ZZ is a random variable having the normal distribution with EZ=β\mathbb{E} Z=\beta and VarZ=τ2\operatorname{Var} Z=\tau^{2}.

For positive constants a,ca, c show that

E(aeZc)+=ae(β+τ2/2)Φ(log(a/c)+βτ+τ)cΦ(log(a/c)+βτ)\mathbb{E}\left(a e^{Z}-c\right)_{+}=a e^{\left(\beta+\tau^{2} / 2\right)} \Phi\left(\frac{\log (a / c)+\beta}{\tau}+\tau\right)-c \Phi\left(\frac{\log (a / c)+\beta}{\tau}\right)

where Φ\Phi is the standard normal distribution function.

In the context of the Black-Scholes model, derive the formula for the price at time 0 of a European call option on the stock at strike price cc and maturity time t0t_{0} when the interest rate is ρ\rho and the volatility of the stock is σ\sigma.

(ii) Let pp denote the price of the call option in the Black-Scholes model specified in (i). Show that pρ>0\frac{\partial p}{\partial \rho}>0 and sketch carefully the dependence of pp on the volatility σ\sigma (when the other parameters in the model are held fixed).

Now suppose that it is observed that the interest rate lies in the range 0<ρ<ρ00<\rho<\rho_{0} and when it changes it is linked to the volatility by the formula σ=ln(ρ0/ρ)\sigma=\ln \left(\rho_{0} / \rho\right). Consider a call option at strike price c=S0c=S_{0}, where S0S_{0} is the stock price at time 0 . There is a small increase Δρ\Delta \rho in the interest rate; will the price of the option increase or decrease (assuming that the stock price is unaffected)? Justify your answer carefully.

[You may assume that the function ϕ(x)/Φ(x)\phi(x) / \Phi(x) is decreasing in x,<x<x,-\infty<x<\infty, and increases to ++\infty as xx \rightarrow-\infty, where Φ\Phi is the standard-normal distribution function and ϕ=Φ\phi=\Phi^{\prime}.]