B4.12

Applied Probability
Part II, 2002

Define a Poisson random measure. State and prove the Product Theorem for the jump times JnJ_{n} of a Poisson process with constant rate λ\lambda and independent random variables YnY_{n} with law μ\mu. Write down the corresponding result for a Poisson process Π\Pi in a space E=RdE=\mathbb{R}^{d} with rate λ(x)(xE)\lambda(x)(x \in E) when we associate with each XΠX \in \Pi an independent random variable mXm_{X} with density ρ(X,dm)\rho(X, d m).

Prove Campbell's Theorem, i.e. show that if MM is a Poisson random measure on the space EE with intensity measure ν\nu and a:ERa: E \rightarrow \mathbb{R} is a bounded measurable function then

E[eθΣ]=exp(E(eθa(y)1)ν(dy))\mathbf{E}\left[e^{\theta \Sigma}\right]=\exp \left(\int_{E}\left(e^{\theta a(y)}-1\right) \nu(d y)\right)

where

Σ=Ea(y)M(dy)=XΠa(X)\Sigma=\int_{E} a(y) M(d y)=\sum_{X \in \Pi} a(X)

Stars are scattered over three-dimensional space R3\mathbb{R}^{3} in a Poisson process Π\Pi with density ν(X)(XR3)\nu(X)\left(X \in \mathbb{R}^{3}\right). Masses of the stars are independent random variables; the mass mXm_{X} of a star at XX has the density ρ(X,dm)\rho(X, d m). The gravitational potential at the origin is given by

F=XΠGmXXF=\sum_{X \in \Pi} \frac{G m_{X}}{|X|}

where GG is a constant. Find the moment generating function E[eθF]\mathbf{E}\left[e^{\theta F}\right].

A galaxy occupies a sphere of radius RR centred at the origin. The density of stars is ν(x)=1/x\nu(\mathbf{x})=1 /|\mathbf{x}| for points x\mathbf{x} inside the sphere; the mass of each star has the exponential distribution with mean MM. Calculate the expected potential due to the galaxy at the origin. Let CC be a positive constant. Find the distribution of the distance from the origin to the nearest star whose contribution to the potential FF is at least CC.