A3.11 B3.16

Stochastic Financial Models
Part II, 2002

(i) Explain briefly what it means to say that a stochastic process {Wt,t0}\left\{W_{t}, t \geqslant 0\right\} is a standard Brownian motion.

Let {Wt,t0}\left\{W_{t}, t \geqslant 0\right\} be a standard Brownian motion and let a,ba, b be real numbers. What condition must aa and bb satisfy to ensure that the process eaWt+bte^{a W_{t}+b t} is a martingale? Justify your answer carefully.

(ii) At the beginning of each of the years r=0,1,,n1r=0,1, \ldots, n-1 an investor has income XrX_{r}, of which he invests a proportion ρr,0ρr1\rho_{r}, 0 \leqslant \rho_{r} \leqslant 1, and consumes the rest during the year. His income at the beginning of the next year is

Xr+1=Xr+ρrXrWrX_{r+1}=X_{r}+\rho_{r} X_{r} W_{r}

where W0,,Wn1W_{0}, \ldots, W_{n-1} are independent positive random variables with finite means and X00X_{0} \geqslant 0 is a constant. He decides on ρr\rho_{r} after he has observed both XrX_{r} and WrW_{r} at the beginning of year rr, but at that time he does not have any knowledge of the value of WsW_{s}, for any s>rs>r. The investor retires in year nn and consumes his entire income during that year. He wishes to determine the investment policy that maximizes his expected total consumption

E[r=0n1(1ρr)Xr+Xn]\mathbb{E}\left[\sum_{r=0}^{n-1}\left(1-\rho_{r}\right) X_{r}+X_{n}\right]

Prove that the optimal policy may be expressed in terms of the numbers b0,b1,b_{0}, b_{1}, \ldots, bnb_{n} where bn=1,br=br+1+Emax(br+1Wr,1)b_{n}=1, b_{r}=b_{r+1}+\mathbb{E} \max \left(b_{r+1} W_{r}, 1\right), for r<nr<n, and determine the optimal expected total consumption.