B4.12

Applied Probability
Part II, 2003

Explain what is meant by a renewal process and by a renewal-reward process.

State and prove the law of large numbers for renewal-reward processes.

A component used in a manufacturing process has a maximum lifetime of 2 years and is equally likely to fail at any time during that period. If the component fails whilst in use, it is replaced immediately by a similar component, at a cost of £1000£ 1000. The factory owner may alternatively replace the component before failure, at a time of his choosing, at a cost of £200£ 200. What should the factory owner do?