B2.15

Optimization and Control
Part II, 2003

The owner of a put option may exercise it on any one of the days 1,,h1, \ldots, h, or not at all. If he exercises it on day tt, when the share price is xtx_{t}, his profit will be pxtp-x_{t}. Suppose the share price obeys xt+1=xt+ϵtx_{t+1}=x_{t}+\epsilon_{t}, where ϵ1,ϵ2,\epsilon_{1}, \epsilon_{2}, \ldots are i.i.d. random variables for which Eϵt<E\left|\epsilon_{t}\right|<\infty. Let Fs(x)F_{s}(x) be the maximal expected profit the owner can obtain when there are ss further days to go and the share price is xx. Show that

(a) Fs(x)F_{s}(x) is non-decreasing in ss,

(b) Fs(x)+xF_{s}(x)+x is non-decreasing in xx, and

(c) Fs(x)F_{s}(x) is continuous in xx.

Deduce that there exists a non-decreasing sequence, a1,,aha_{1}, \ldots, a_{h}, such that expected profit is maximized by exercising the option the first day that xtatx_{t} \leqslant a_{t}.

Now suppose that the option never expires, so effectively h=h=\infty. Show by examples that there may or may not exist an optimal policy of the form 'exercise the option the first day that xtax_{t} \leqslant a.