A3.12 B3.15

Principles of Statistics
Part II, 2003

(i) Let X1,,XnX_{1}, \ldots, X_{n} be independent, identically distributed random variables, with the exponential density f(x;θ)=θeθx,x>0f(x ; \theta)=\theta e^{-\theta x}, x>0.

Obtain the maximum likelihood estimator θ^\hat{\theta} of θ\theta. What is the asymptotic distribution of n(θ^θ)\sqrt{n}(\hat{\theta}-\theta) ?

What is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of θ?\theta ? Justify your answer carefully.

(ii) Explain briefly what is meant by the profile log-likelihood for a scalar parameter of interest γ\gamma, in the presence of a nuisance parameter ξ\xi. Describe how you would test a null hypothesis of the form H0:γ=γ0H_{0}: \gamma=\gamma_{0} using the profile log-likelihood ratio statistic.

In a reliability study, lifetimes T1,,TnT_{1}, \ldots, T_{n} are independent and exponentially distributed, with means of the form E(Ti)=exp(β+ξzi)E\left(T_{i}\right)=\exp \left(\beta+\xi z_{i}\right) where β,ξ\beta, \xi are unknown and z1,,znz_{1}, \ldots, z_{n} are known constants. Inference is required for the mean lifetime, exp(β+ξz0)\exp \left(\beta+\xi z_{0}\right), for covariate value z0z_{0}.

Find, as explicitly as possible, the profile log-likelihood for γβ+ξz0\gamma \equiv \beta+\xi z_{0}, with nuisance parameter ξ\xi.

Show that, under H0:γ=γ0H_{0}: \gamma=\gamma_{0}, the profile log\log - likelihood ratio statistic has a distribution which does not depend on the value of ξ\xi. How might the parametric bootstrap be used to obtain a test of H0H_{0} of exact size α\alpha ?

[Hint: if YY is exponentially distributed with mean 1 , then μY\mu Y is exponentially distributed with mean μ\mu.]