A2.11 B2.16

Principles of Statistics
Part II, 2004

(i) In the context of a decision-theoretic approach to statistics, what is a loss function? a decision rule? the risk function of a decision rule? the Bayes risk of a decision rule? the Bayes rule with respect to a given prior distribution?

Show how the Bayes rule with respect to a given prior distribution is computed.

(ii) A sample of nn people is to be tested for the presence of a certain condition. A single real-valued observation is made on each one; this observation comes from density f0f_{0} if the condition is absent, and from density f1f_{1} if the condition is present. Suppose θi=0\theta_{i}=0 if the ith i^{\text {th }}person does not have the condition, θi=1\theta_{i}=1 otherwise, and suppose that the prior distribution for the θi\theta_{i} is that they are independent with common distribution P(θi=1)=p(0,1)P\left(\theta_{i}=1\right)=p \in(0,1), where pp is known. If XiX_{i} denotes the observation made on the ith i^{\text {th }}person, what is the posterior distribution of the θi\theta_{i} ?

Now suppose that the loss function is defined by

L0(θ,a)j=1n(αaj(1θj)+β(1aj)θj)L_{0}(\theta, a) \equiv \sum_{j=1}^{n}\left(\alpha a_{j}\left(1-\theta_{j}\right)+\beta\left(1-a_{j}\right) \theta_{j}\right)

for action a[0,1]na \in[0,1]^{n}, where α,β\alpha, \beta are positive constants. If πj\pi_{j} denotes the posterior probability that θj=1\theta_{j}=1 given the data, prove that the Bayes rule for this prior and this loss function is to take aj=1a_{j}=1 if πj\pi_{j} exceeds the threshold value α/(α+β)\alpha /(\alpha+\beta), and otherwise to take aj=0a_{j}=0.

In an attempt to control the proportion of false positives, it is proposed to use a different loss function, namely,

L1(θ,a)L0(θ,a)+γI{aj>0}(1θjajaj)L_{1}(\theta, a) \equiv L_{0}(\theta, a)+\gamma I_{\left\{\sum a_{j}>0\right\}}\left(1-\frac{\sum \theta_{j} a_{j}}{\sum a_{j}}\right)

where γ>0\gamma>0. Prove that the Bayes rule is once again a threshold rule, that is, we take action aj=1a_{j}=1 if and only if πj>λ\pi_{j}>\lambda, and determine λ\lambda as fully as you can.