A2.11 B2.16
(i) In the context of a decision-theoretic approach to statistics, what is a loss function? a decision rule? the risk function of a decision rule? the Bayes risk of a decision rule? the Bayes rule with respect to a given prior distribution?
Show how the Bayes rule with respect to a given prior distribution is computed.
(ii) A sample of people is to be tested for the presence of a certain condition. A single real-valued observation is made on each one; this observation comes from density if the condition is absent, and from density if the condition is present. Suppose if the person does not have the condition, otherwise, and suppose that the prior distribution for the is that they are independent with common distribution , where is known. If denotes the observation made on the person, what is the posterior distribution of the ?
Now suppose that the loss function is defined by
for action , where are positive constants. If denotes the posterior probability that given the data, prove that the Bayes rule for this prior and this loss function is to take if exceeds the threshold value , and otherwise to take .
In an attempt to control the proportion of false positives, it is proposed to use a different loss function, namely,
where . Prove that the Bayes rule is once again a threshold rule, that is, we take action if and only if , and determine as fully as you can.