4.II.26I

Applied Probability
Part II, 2005

A particle performs a continuous-time nearest neighbour random walk on a regular triangular lattice inside an angle π/3\pi / 3, starting from the corner. See the diagram below. The jump rates are 1/31 / 3 from the corner and 1/61 / 6 in each of the six directions if the particle is inside the angle. However, if the particle is on the edge of the angle, the rate is 1/31 / 3 along the edge away from the corner and 1/61 / 6 to each of three other neighbouring sites in the angle. See the diagram below, where a typical trajectory is also shown.

The particle position at time t0t \geqslant 0 is determined by its vertical level VtV_{t} and its horizontal position GtG_{t}. For k0k \geqslant 0, if Vt=kV_{t}=k then Gt=0,,kG_{t}=0, \ldots, k. Here 1,,k11, \ldots, k-1 are positions inside, and 0 and kk positions on the edge of the angle, at vertical level kk.

Let J1V,J2V,J_{1}^{V}, J_{2}^{V}, \ldots be the times of subsequent jumps of process (Vt)\left(V_{t}\right) and consider the embedded discrete-time Markov chains

Ynin =(G^nin ,V^n) and Ynout =(G^nout ,V^n)Y_{n}^{\text {in }}=\left(\widehat{G}_{n}^{\text {in }}, \widehat{V}_{n}\right) \text { and } Y_{n}^{\text {out }}=\left(\widehat{G}_{n}^{\text {out }}, \widehat{V}_{n}\right)

where V^n\widehat{V}_{n} is the vertical level immediately after time JnV,G^nin J_{n}^{V}, \widehat{G}_{n}^{\text {in }} is the horizontal position immediately after time JnVJ_{n}^{V}, and G^nout \widehat{G}_{n}^{\text {out }} is the horizontal position immediately before time Jn+1VJ_{n+1}^{V}. (a) Assume that (V^n)\left(\widehat{V}_{n}\right) is a Markov chain with transition probabilities

P(V^n=k+1V^n1=k)=k+22(k+1),P(V^n=k1V^n1=k)=k2(k+1),\mathbb{P}\left(\widehat{V}_{n}=k+1 \mid \widehat{V}_{n-1}=k\right)=\frac{k+2}{2(k+1)}, \mathbb{P}\left(\widehat{V}_{n}=k-1 \mid \widehat{V}_{n-1}=k\right)=\frac{k}{2(k+1)},

and that (Vt)\left(V_{t}\right) is a continuous-time Markov chain with rates

qkk1=k3(k+1),qkk=23,qkk+1=k+23(k+1)q_{k k-1}=\frac{k}{3(k+1)}, \quad q_{k k}=-\frac{2}{3}, \quad q_{k k+1}=\frac{k+2}{3(k+1)}

[You will be asked to justify these assumptions in part (b) of the question.] Determine whether the chains (V^n)\left(\widehat{V}_{n}\right) and (Vt)\left(V_{t}\right) are transient, positive recurrent or null recurrent.

(b) Now assume that, conditional on V^n=k\widehat{V}_{n}=k and previously passed vertical levels, the horizontal positions G^nin \widehat{G}_{n}^{\text {in }} and G^nout \widehat{G}_{n}^{\text {out }} are uniformly distributed on {0,,k}\{0, \ldots, k\}. In other words, for all attainable values k,kn1,,k1k, k_{n-1}, \ldots, k_{1} and for all i=0,,ki=0, \ldots, k,

P(G^nin =iV^n=k,V^n1=kn1,,V^1=k1,V^0=0)=P(G^nout =iV^n=k,V^n1=kn1,,V^1=k1,V^0=0)=1k+1\begin{aligned} &\mathbb{P}\left(\widehat{G}_{n}^{\text {in }}=i \mid \widehat{V}_{n}=k, \widehat{V}_{n-1}=k_{n-1}, \ldots, \widehat{V}_{1}=k_{1}, \widehat{V}_{0}=0\right) \\ &\quad=\mathbb{P}\left(\widehat{G}_{n}^{\text {out }}=i \mid \widehat{V}_{n}=k, \widehat{V}_{n-1}=k_{n-1}, \ldots, \widehat{V}_{1}=k_{1}, \widehat{V}_{0}=0\right)=\frac{1}{k+1} \end{aligned}

Deduce that (V^n)\left(\widehat{V}_{n}\right) and (Vt)\left(V_{t}\right) are indeed Markov chains with transition probabilities and rates as in (a).

(c) Finally, prove property ()(*).