3.II.26I

Principles of Statistics
Part II, 2005

In the context of decision theory, explain the meaning of the following italicized terms: loss function, decision rule, the risk of a decision rule, a Bayes rule with respect to prior π\pi, and an admissible rule. Explain how a Bayes rule with respect to a prior π\pi can be constructed.

Suppose that X1,,XnX_{1}, \ldots, X_{n} are independent with common N(0,v)N(0, v) distribution, where v>0v>0 is supposed to have a prior density f0f_{0}. In a decision-theoretic approach to estimating vv, we take a quadratic loss: L(v,a)=(va)2L(v, a)=(v-a)^{2}. Write X=(X1,,Xn)X=\left(X_{1}, \ldots, X_{n}\right) and X=(X12++Xn2)1/2|X|=\left(X_{1}^{2}+\ldots+X_{n}^{2}\right)^{1 / 2}.

By considering decision rules (estimators) of the form v^(X)=αX2\hat{v}(X)=\alpha|X|^{2}, prove that if α1/(n+2)\alpha \neq 1 /(n+2) then the estimator v^(X)=αX2\hat{v}(X)=\alpha|X|^{2} is not Bayes, for any choice of prior f0f_{0}.

By considering decision rules of the form v^(X)=αX2+β\hat{v}(X)=\alpha|X|^{2}+\beta, prove that if α1/n\alpha \neq 1 / n then the estimator v^(X)=αX2\hat{v}(X)=\alpha|X|^{2} is not Bayes, for any choice of prior f0f_{0}.

[You may use without proof the fact that, if ZZ has a N(0,1)N(0,1) distribution, then EZ4=3E Z^{4}=3.]