2.II.28J

Stochastic Financial Models
Part II, 2005

(i) At the beginning of year nn, an investor makes decisions about his investment and consumption for the coming year. He first takes out an amount cnc_{n} from his current wealth wnw_{n}, and sets this aside for consumption. He splits his remaining wealth between a bank account (unit wealth invested at the start of the year will have grown to a sure amount r>1r>1 by the end of the year), and the stock market. Unit wealth invested in the stock market will have become the random amount Xn+1>0X_{n+1}>0 by the end of the year.

The investor's objective is to invest and consume so as to maximise the expected value of n=1NU(cn)\sum_{n=1}^{N} U\left(c_{n}\right), where UU is strictly increasing and strictly convex. Consider the dynamic programming equation (Bellman equation) for his problem,

Vn(w)=supc,θ{U(c)+En[Vn+1(θ(wc)Xn+1+(1θ)(wc)r)]}(0n<N),VN(w)=U(w).\begin{aligned} V_{n}(w) &=\sup _{c, \theta}\left\{U(c)+E_{n}\left[V_{n+1}\left(\theta(w-c) X_{n+1}+(1-\theta)(w-c) r\right)\right]\right\} \quad(0 \leqslant n<N), \\ V_{N}(w) &=U(w) . \end{aligned}

Explain all undefined notation, and explain briefly why the equation holds.

(ii) Supposing that the XiX_{i} are independent and identically distributed, and that U(x)=x1R/(1R)U(x)=x^{1-R} /(1-R), where R>0R>0 is different from 1 , find as explicitly as you can the form of the agent's optimal policy.

(iii) Return to the general problem of (i). Assuming that the sample space Ω\Omega is finite, and that all suprema are attained, show that

En[Vn+1(wn+1)(Xn+1r)]=0rEn[Vn+1(wn+1)]=U(cn)rEn[Vn+1(wn+1)]=Vn(wn)\begin{aligned} E_{n}\left[V_{n+1}^{\prime}\left(w_{n+1}^{*}\right)\left(X_{n+1}-r\right)\right] &=0 \\ r E_{n}\left[V_{n+1}^{\prime}\left(w_{n+1}^{*}\right)\right] &=U^{\prime}\left(c_{n}^{*}\right) \\ r E_{n}\left[V_{n+1}^{\prime}\left(w_{n+1}^{*}\right)\right] &=V_{n}^{\prime}\left(w_{n}^{*}\right) \end{aligned}

where (cn,wn)0nN\left(c_{n}^{*}, w_{n}^{*}\right)_{0 \leqslant n \leqslant N} denotes the optimal consumption and wealth process for the problem. Explain the significance of each of these equalities.