1.II.26I

Applied Probability
Part II, 2005

A cell has been placed in a biological solution at time t=0t=0. After an exponential time of rate μ\mu, it is divided, producing kk cells with probability pk,k=0,1,p_{k}, k=0,1, \ldots, with the mean value ρ=k=1kpk(k=0\rho=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty} k p_{k}(k=0 means that the cell dies )). The same mechanism is applied to each of the living cells, independently.

(a) Let MtM_{t} be the number of living cells in the solution by time t>0t>0. Prove that EMt=exp[tμ(ρ1)]\mathbb{E} M_{t}=\exp [t \mu(\rho-1)]. [You may use without proof, if you wish, the fact that, if a positive function a(t)a(t) satisfies a(t+s)=a(t)a(s)a(t+s)=a(t) a(s) for t,s0t, s \geqslant 0 and is differentiable at zero, then a(t)=eαt,t0a(t)=e^{\alpha t}, t \geqslant 0, for some α.]\left.\alpha .\right]

Let ϕt(s)=EsMt\phi_{t}(s)=\mathbb{E} s^{M_{t}} be the probability generating function of MtM_{t}. Prove that it satisfies the following differential equation

ddtϕt(s)=μ(ϕt(s)+k=0pk[ϕt(s)]k), with ϕ0(s)=s\frac{\mathrm{d}}{\mathrm{d} t} \phi_{t}(s)=\mu\left(-\phi_{t}(s)+\sum_{k=0}^{\infty} p_{k}\left[\phi_{t}(s)\right]^{k}\right), \quad \text { with } \quad \phi_{0}(s)=s

(b) Now consider the case where each cell is divided in two cells (p2=1)\left(p_{2}=1\right). Let Nt=Mt1N_{t}=M_{t}-1 be the number of cells produced in the solution by time tt.

Calculate the distribution of NtN_{t}. Is (Nt)\left(N_{t}\right) an inhomogeneous Poisson process? If so, what is its rate λ(t)\lambda(t) ? Justify your answer.