4.I.5I

Statistical Modelling
Part II, 2006

The table below summarises the yearly numbers of named storms in the Atlantic basin over the period 1944-2004, and also gives an index of average July ocean temperature in the northern hemisphere over the same period. To save space, only the data for the first four and last four years are shown.

 Year  Storms  Temp 1944110.1651945110.080194660.000194790.0242001150.5922002120.6272003160.6082004150.546\begin{array}{rrr}\text { Year } & \text { Storms } & \text { Temp } \\ 1944 & 11 & 0.165 \\ 1945 & 11 & 0.080 \\ 1946 & 6 & 0.000 \\ 1947 & 9 & -0.024 \\ \vdots & \vdots & \vdots \\ 2001 & 15 & 0.592 \\ 2002 & 12 & 0.627 \\ 2003 & 16 & 0.608 \\ 2004 & 15 & 0.546\end{array}

Explain and interpret the R\mathrm{R} commands and (slightly abbreviated) output below.

In 2005 , the ocean temperature index was 0.743. Explain how you would predict the number of named storms for that year.