1.I.6B

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2006

A large population of some species has probability P(n,t)P(n, t) of taking the value nn at time tt. Explain the use of the generating function ϕ(s,t)=n=0snP(n,t)\phi(s, t)=\sum_{n=0}^{\infty} s^{n} P(n, t), and give expressions for P(n,t)P(n, t) and n\langle n\rangle in terms of ϕ\phi.

A particular population is subject to a birth-death process, so that the probability of an increase from nn to n+1n+1 in unit time is α+βn\alpha+\beta n, while the probability of a decrease from nn to n1n-1 is γn\gamma n, with γ>β\gamma>\beta. Show that the master equation for P(n,t)P(n, t) is

P(n,t)t=(α+β(n1))P(n1,t)+γ(n+1)P(n+1,t)(α+(β+γ)n)P(n,t)\frac{\partial P(n, t)}{\partial t}=(\alpha+\beta(n-1)) P(n-1, t)+\gamma(n+1) P(n+1, t)-(\alpha+(\beta+\gamma) n) P(n, t)

Derive the equation satisfied by ϕ\phi, and show that in the statistically steady state, when ϕ\phi and PP are independent of time, ϕ\phi takes the form

ϕ(s)=(γβγβs)α/β\phi(s)=\left(\frac{\gamma-\beta}{\gamma-\beta s}\right)^{\alpha / \beta}

Using the equation for ϕ\phi, or otherwise, find n\langle n\rangle.