3.II.25J

Applied Probability
Part II, 2007

For a discrete-time Markov chain, if the probability of transition iji \rightarrow j does not depend on ii then the chain is reduced to a sequence of independent random variables (states). In this case, the chain forgets about its initial state and enters equilibrium after a single transition. In the continuous-time case, a Markov chain whose rates qijq_{i j} of transition iji \rightarrow j depend on jj but not on iji \neq j still 'remembers' its initial state and reaches equilibrium only in the limit as the time grows indefinitely. This question is an illustration of this property.

A protean sea sponge may change its colour among ss varieties 1,,s1, \ldots, s, under the influence of the environment. The rate of transition from colour ii to jj equals rj0r_{j} \geqslant 0 and does not depend on i,iji, i \neq j. Consider a Q-matrix Q=(qij)Q=\left(q_{i j}\right) with entries

qij={rj,ijR+ri,i=jq_{i j}= \begin{cases}r_{j}, & i \neq j \\ -R+r_{i}, & i=j\end{cases}

where R=r1++rsR=r_{1}+\ldots+r_{s}. Assume that R>0R>0 and let (Xt)\left(X_{t}\right) be the continuous-time Markov chain with generator QQ. Given t0t \geqslant 0, let P(t)=(pij(t))P(t)=\left(p_{i j}(t)\right) be the matrix of transition probabilities in time tt in chain (Xt)\left(X_{t}\right).

(a) State the exponential relation between the matrices QQ and P(t)P(t).

(b) Set πj=rj/R,j=1,,s\pi_{j}=r_{j} / R, j=1, \ldots, s. Check that π1,,πs\pi_{1}, \ldots, \pi_{s} are equilibrium probabilities for the chain (Xt)\left(X_{t}\right). Is this a unique equilibrium distribution? What property of the vector with entries πj\pi_{j} relative to the matrix QQ is involved here?

(c) Let x\mathbf{x} be a vector with components x1,,xsx_{1}, \ldots, x_{s} such that x1++xs=0x_{1}+\ldots+x_{s}=0. Show that xTQ=RxT\mathbf{x}^{\mathrm{T}} Q=-R \mathbf{x}^{\mathrm{T}}. Compute xTP(t)\mathbf{x}^{\mathrm{T}} P(t)

(d) Now let δi\delta_{i} denote the (column) vector whose entries are 0 except for the ii th one which equals 1. Observe that the ii th row of P(t)P(t) is δiTP(t)\delta_{i}^{\mathrm{T}} P(t). Prove that δiTP(t)=πT+etR(δiTπT).\delta_{i}^{\mathrm{T}} P(t)=\pi^{\mathrm{T}}+e^{-t R}\left(\delta_{i}^{\mathrm{T}}-\pi^{\mathrm{T}}\right) .

(e) Deduce the expression for transition probabilities pij(t)p_{i j}(t) in terms of rates rjr_{j} and their sum RR.