Consider the normal linear model Y=Xβ+ε in vector notation, where
Y=⎝⎜⎜⎛Y1⋮Yn⎠⎟⎟⎞,X=⎝⎜⎜⎛x1T⋮xnT⎠⎟⎟⎞,β=⎝⎜⎜⎛β1⋮βp⎠⎟⎟⎞,ε=⎝⎜⎜⎛ε1⋮εn⎠⎟⎟⎞,εi∼ i.i.d. N(0,σ2),
where xiT=(xi1,…,xip) is known and X is of full rank (p<n). Give expressions for maximum likelihood estimators β^ and σ^2 of β and σ2 respectively, and state their joint distribution.
Suppose that there is a new pair (x∗,y∗), independent of (x1,y1),…,(xn,yn), satisfying the relationship
y∗=x∗ Tβ+ε∗, where ε∗∼N(0,σ2).
We suppose that x∗ is known, and estimate y∗ by y~=x∗ Tβ^. State the distribution of
σ~τy~−y∗, where σ~2=n−pnσ^2 and τ2=x∗ T(XTX)−1x∗+1
Find the form of a (1−α)-level prediction interval for y∗.