3.I.6B

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2007

Consider a birth and death process in which births always give rise to two offspring, with rate λ\lambda, while the death rate per individual is β\beta.

Write down the master equation (or probability balance equation) for this system.

Show that the population mean is given by

n=2λβ(1eβt)+n0eβt\langle n\rangle=\frac{2 \lambda}{\beta}\left(1-e^{-\beta t}\right)+n_{0} e^{-\beta t}

where n0n_{0} is the initial population mean, and that the population variance satisfies

σ23λ/β as t\sigma^{2} \rightarrow 3 \lambda / \beta \quad \text { as } \quad t \rightarrow \infty