2.II.26I

Applied Probability
Part II, 2008

Consider a continuous-time Markov chain (Xt)\left(X_{t}\right) given by the diagram below.

We will assume that the rates α,β,λ\alpha, \beta, \lambda and μ\mu are all positive.

(a) Is the chain (Xt)\left(X_{t}\right) irreducible?

(b) Write down the standard equations for the hitting probabilities

hCi=PCi( hit W0) ,i0,h_{\mathrm{C} i}=\mathbb{P}_{\mathrm{C} i}(\text { hit W0) }, \quad i \geqslant 0,

and

hWi=PWi( hit W0) ,i1.h_{\mathrm{W} i}=\mathbb{P}_{\mathrm{W} i}(\text { hit W0) }, \quad i \geqslant 1 .

Explain how to identify the probabilities hCih_{\mathrm{C} i} and hWih_{\mathrm{W} i} among the solutions to these equations.

[You should state the theorem you use but its proof is not required.]

(c) Set h(i)=(hCihWi)h^{(i)}=\left(\begin{array}{c}h_{\mathrm{C} i} \\ h_{\mathrm{W} i}\end{array}\right) and find a matrix AA such that

h(i)=Ah(i1),i=1,2,h^{(i)}=A h^{(i-1)}, \quad i=1,2, \ldots

The recursion matrix AA has a 'standard' eigenvalue and a 'standard' eigenvector that do not depend on the transition rates: what are they and why are they always present?

(d) Calculate the second eigenvalue ϑ\vartheta of the matrix AA, and the corresponding eigenvector, in the form (b1)\left(\begin{array}{l}b \\ 1\end{array}\right), where b>0b>0.

(e) Suppose the second eigenvalue ϑ\vartheta is 1\geqslant 1. What can you say about hCih_{\mathrm{C} i} and hWih_{\mathrm{W} i} ? Is the chain (Xt)\left(X_{t}\right) transient or recurrent? Justify your answer.

(f) Now assume the opposite: the second eigenvalue ϑ\vartheta is <1<1. Check that in this case b<1b<1. Is the chain transient or recurrent under this condition?

(g) Finally, specify, by means of inequalities between the parameters α,β,λ\alpha, \beta, \lambda and μ\mu, when the chain (Xt)\left(X_{t}\right) is recurrent and when it is transient.