4.II.26I

Applied Probability
Part II, 2008

On a hot summer night, opening my window brings some relief. This attracts hordes of mosquitoes who manage to negotiate a dense window net. But, luckily, I have a mosquito trapping device in my room.

Assume the mosquitoes arrive in a Poisson process at rate λ\lambda; afterwards they wander around for independent and identically distributed random times with a finite mean ES\mathbb{E} S, where SS denotes the random wandering time of a mosquito, and finally are trapped by the device.

(a) Identify a mathematical model, which was introduced in the course, for the number of mosquitoes present in the room at times t0t \geqslant 0.

(b) Calculate the distribution of Q(t)Q(t) in terms of λ\lambda and the tail probabilities P(S>x)\mathbb{P}(S>x) of the wandering time SS, where Q(t)Q(t) is the number of mosquitoes in the room at time t>0t>0 (assuming that at the initial time, Q(0)=0Q(0)=0 ).

(c) Write down the distribution for QEQ^{\mathrm{E}}, the number of mosquitoes in the room in equilibrium, in terms of λ\lambda and ES\mathbb{E} S.

(d) Instead of waiting for the number of mosquitoes to reach equilibrium, I close the window at time t>0t>0. For v0v \geqslant 0 let X(t+v)X(t+v) be the number of mosquitoes left at time t+vt+v, i.e. vv time units after closing the window. Calculate the distribution of X(t+v)X(t+v).

(e) Let V(t)V(t) be the time needed to trap all mosquitoes in the room after closing the window at time t>0t>0. By considering the event {X(t+v)1}\{X(t+v) \geqslant 1\}, or otherwise, compute P[V(t)>v]\mathbb{P}[V(t)>v].

(f) Now suppose that the time tt at which I shut the window is very large, so that I can assume that the number of mosquitoes in the room has the distribution of QEQ^{E}. Let VEV^{E} be the further time needed to trap all mosquitoes in the room. Show that

P[VE>v]=1exp(λE[(Sv)+]),\mathbb{P}\left[V^{E}>v\right]=1-\exp \left(-\lambda \mathbb{E}\left[(S-v)_{+}\right]\right),

where x+max(x,0)x_{+} \equiv \max (x, 0).