2.II.28J

Stochastic Financial Models
Part II, 2008

(a) Let (Bt:t0)\left(B_{t}: t \geqslant 0\right) be a Brownian motion and consider the process

Yt=Y0eσBt+(μ12σ2)tY_{t}=Y_{0} e^{\sigma B_{t}+\left(\mu-\frac{1}{2} \sigma^{2}\right) t}

for Y0>0Y_{0}>0 deterministic. For which values of μ\mu is (Yt:t0)\left(Y_{t}: t \geqslant 0\right) a supermartingale? For which values of μ\mu is (Yt:t0)\left(Y_{t}: t \geqslant 0\right) a martingale? For which values of μ\mu is (1/Yt:t0)\left(1 / Y_{t}: t \geqslant 0\right) a martingale? Justify your answers.

(b) Assume that the riskless rates of return for Dollar investors and Euro investors are rDr_{D} and rEr_{E} respectively. Thus, 1 Dollar at time 0 in the bank account of a Dollar investor will grow to erDte^{r_{D} t} Dollars at time tt. For a Euro investor, the Dollar is a risky, tradable asset. Let QE\mathbb{Q}_{E} be his equivalent martingale measure and assume that the EUR/USD exchange rate at time tt, that is, the number of Euros that one Dollar will buy at time tt, is given by

Yt=Y0eσBt+(μ12σ2)t,Y_{t}=Y_{0} e^{\sigma B_{t}+\left(\mu-\frac{1}{2} \sigma^{2}\right) t},

where (Bt)\left(B_{t}\right) is a Brownian motion under QE\mathbb{Q}_{E}. Determine μ\mu as function of rDr_{D} and rEr_{E}. Verify that YY is a martingale if rD=rEr_{D}=r_{E}.

(c) Let rD,rEr_{D}, r_{E} be as in part (b). Let now QD\mathbb{Q}_{D} be an equivalent martingale measure for a Dollar investor and assume that the EUR/USD exchange rate at time tt is given by

Yt=Y0eσBt+(μ12σ2)tY_{t}=Y_{0} e^{\sigma B_{t}+\left(\mu-\frac{1}{2} \sigma^{2}\right) t}

where now (Bt)\left(B_{t}\right) is a Brownian motion under QD\mathbb{Q}_{D}. Determine μ\mu as function of rDr_{D} and rEr_{E}. Given rD=rEr_{D}=r_{E}, check, under QD\mathbb{Q}_{D}, that is YY is not a martingale but that 1/Y1 / Y is a martingale.

(d) Assuming still that rD=rEr_{D}=r_{E}, rederive the final conclusion of part (c), namely the martingale property of 1/Y1 / Y, directly from part (b).