4.II.28J

Stochastic Financial Models
Part II, 2008

(a) Consider a family (Xn:n0)\left(X_{n}: n \geqslant 0\right) of independent, identically distributed, positive random variables and fix z0>0z_{0}>0. Define inductively

zn+1=znXn,n0z_{n+1}=z_{n} X_{n}, \quad n \geqslant 0

Compute, for n{1,,N}n \in\{1, \ldots, N\}, the conditional expectation E(zNzn)\mathbb{E}\left(z_{N} \mid z_{n}\right).

(b) Fix R[0,1)R \in[0,1). In the setting of part (a), compute also E(U(zN)zn)\mathbb{E}\left(U\left(z_{N}\right) \mid z_{n}\right), where

U(x)=x1R/(1R),x0.U(x)=x^{1-R} /(1-R), \quad x \geqslant 0 .

(c) Let UU be as in part (b). An investor with wealth w0>0w_{0}>0 at time 0 wishes to invest it in such a way as to maximise E(U(wN))\mathbb{E}\left(U\left(w_{N}\right)\right) where wNw_{N} is the wealth at the start of day NN. Let α[0,1]\alpha \in[0,1] be fixed. On day nn, he chooses the proportion θ[α,1]\theta \in[\alpha, 1] of his wealth to invest in a single risky asset, so that his wealth at the start of day n+1n+1 will be

wn+1=wn{θXn+(1θ)(1+r)}w_{n+1}=w_{n}\left\{\theta X_{n}+(1-\theta)(1+r)\right\}

Here, (Xn:n0)\left(X_{n}: n \geqslant 0\right) is as in part (a) and rr is the per-period riskless rate of interest. If Vn(w)=supE(U(wN)wn=w)V_{n}(w)=\sup \mathbb{E}\left(U\left(w_{N}\right) \mid w_{n}=w\right) denotes the value function of this optimization problem, show that Vn(wn)=anU(wn)V_{n}\left(w_{n}\right)=a_{n} U\left(w_{n}\right) and give a formula for ana_{n}. Verify that, in the case α=1\alpha=1, your answer is in agreement with part (b).