Paper 1, Section II, J

Stochastic Financial Models
Part II, 2009

An investor must decide how to invest his initial wealth w0w_{0} in nn assets for the coming year. At the end of the year, one unit of asset ii will be worth Xi,i=1,,nX_{i}, i=1, \ldots, n, where X=(X1,,Xn)TX=\left(X_{1}, \ldots, X_{n}\right)^{T} has a multivariate normal distribution with mean μ\mu and non-singular covariance matrix VV. At the beginning of the year, one unit of asset ii costs pip_{i}. In addition, he may invest in a riskless bank account; an initial investment of 1 in the bank account will have grown to 1+r>11+r>1 at the end of the year.

(a) The investor chooses to hold θi\theta_{i} units of asset ii, with the remaining φ=w0θp\varphi=w_{0}-\theta \cdot p in the bank account. His objective is to minimise the variance of his wealth w1=φ(1+r)+θXw_{1}=\varphi(1+r)+\theta \cdot X at the end of the year, subject to a required mean value mm for w1w_{1}. Derive the optimal portfolio θ\theta^{*}, and the minimised variance.

(b) Describe the set AR2A \subseteq \mathbb{R}^{2} of achievable pairs (E[w1],var(w1))\left(\mathbb{E}\left[w_{1}\right], \operatorname{var}\left(w_{1}\right)\right) of mean and variance of the terminal wealth. Explain what is meant by the mean-variance efficient frontier as you do so.

(c) Suppose that the investor requires expected mean wealth at time 1 to be mm. He wishes to minimise the expected shortfall E[(w1(1+r)w0)]\mathbb{E}\left[\left(w_{1}-(1+r) w_{0}\right)^{-}\right]subject to this requirement. Show that he will choose a portfolio corresponding to a point on the mean-variance efficient frontier.