Paper 2, Section II, J
Part II, 2009
What is a martingale? What is a stopping time? State and prove the optional sampling theorem.
Suppose that are independent random variables with values in and common distribution . Assume that . Let be the random walk such that for . For , determine the set of values of for which the process is a martingale. Hence derive the probability generating function of the random time
where is a positive integer. Hence find the mean of .
Let . Clearly the mean of is greater than the mean of ; identify the point in your derivation of the mean of where the argument fails if is replaced by .