Paper 1, Section II, I

Applied Probability
Part II, 2010

(a) Define what it means to say that π\pi is an equilibrium distribution for a Markov chain on a countable state space with Q-matrix Q=(qij)Q=\left(q_{i j}\right), and give an equation which is satisfied by any equilibrium distribution. Comment on the possible non-uniqueness of equilibrium distributions.

(b) State a theorem on convergence to an equilibrium distribution for a continuoustime Markov chain.

A continuous-time Markov chain (Xt,t0)\left(X_{t}, t \geqslant 0\right) has three states 1,2,31,2,3 and the Qmatrix Q=(qij)Q=\left(q_{i j}\right) is of the form

Q=(λ1λ1/2λ1/2λ2/2λ2λ2/2λ3/2λ3/2λ3)Q=\left(\begin{array}{ccc} -\lambda_{1} & \lambda_{1} / 2 & \lambda_{1} / 2 \\ \lambda_{2} / 2 & -\lambda_{2} & \lambda_{2} / 2 \\ \lambda_{3} / 2 & \lambda_{3} / 2 & -\lambda_{3} \end{array}\right)

where the rates λ1,λ2,λ3[0,)\lambda_{1}, \lambda_{2}, \lambda_{3} \in[0, \infty) are not all zero.

[Note that some of the λi\lambda_{i} may be zero, and those cases may need special treatment.]

(c) Find the equilibrium distributions of the Markov chain in question. Specify the cases of uniqueness and non-uniqueness.

(d) Find the limit of the transition matrix P(t)=exp(tQ)P(t)=\exp (t Q) when tt \rightarrow \infty.

(e) Describe the jump chain (Yn)\left(Y_{n}\right) and its equilibrium distributions. If P^\widehat{P}is the jump probability matrix, find the limit of P^n\widehat{P}^{n} as nn \rightarrow \infty.