Paper 3, Section II, A

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2010

Consider an epidemic model in which S(x,t)S(x, t) is the local population density of susceptibles and I(x,t)I(x, t) is the density of infectives

St=rISIt=D2Ix2+rISaI\begin{aligned} &\frac{\partial S}{\partial t}=-r I S \\ &\frac{\partial I}{\partial t}=D \frac{\partial^{2} I}{\partial x^{2}}+r I S-a I \end{aligned}

where r,ar, a, and DD are positive. If S0S_{0} is a characteristic population value, show that the rescalings I/S0I,S/S0S,(rS0/D)1/2xx,rS0ttI / S_{0} \rightarrow I, S / S_{0} \rightarrow S,\left(r S_{0} / D\right)^{1 / 2} x \rightarrow x, r S_{0} t \rightarrow t reduce this system to

St=ISIt=2Ix2+ISλI\begin{aligned} &\frac{\partial S}{\partial t}=-I S \\ &\frac{\partial I}{\partial t}=\frac{\partial^{2} I}{\partial x^{2}}+I S-\lambda I \end{aligned}

where λ\lambda should be found.

Travelling wavefront solutions are of the form S(x,t)=S(z),I(x,t)=I(z)S(x, t)=S(z), I(x, t)=I(z), where z=xctz=x-c t and cc is the wave speed, and we seek solutions with boundary conditions S()=1,S()=0,I()=I()=0S(\infty)=1, S^{\prime}(\infty)=0, I(\infty)=I(-\infty)=0. Under the travelling-wave assumption reduce the rescaled PDEs to ODEs, and show by linearisation around the leading edge of the advancing front that the requirement that II be non-negative leads to the condition λ<1\lambda<1 and hence the wave speed relation

c2(1λ)1/2,λ<1c \geqslant 2(1-\lambda)^{1 / 2}, \quad \lambda<1

Using the two ODEs you have obtained, show that the surviving susceptible population fraction σ=S()\sigma=S(-\infty) after the passage of the front satisfies

σλlnσ=1,\sigma-\lambda \ln \sigma=1,

and sketch σ\sigma as a function of λ\lambda.