Paper 3, Section II, J

Applied Probability
Part II, 2011

(i) Define an inhomogeneous Poisson process with rate function λ(u)\lambda(u).

(ii) Show that the number of arrivals in an inhomogeneous Poisson process during the interval (0,t)(0, t) has the Poisson distribution with mean

0tλ(u)du\int_{0}^{t} \lambda(u) \mathrm{d} u

(iii) Suppose that Λ={Λ(t),t0}\Lambda=\{\Lambda(t), t \geqslant 0\} is a non-negative real-valued random process. Conditional on Λ\Lambda, let N={N(t),t0}N=\{N(t), t \geqslant 0\} be an inhomogeneous Poisson process with rate function Λ(u)\Lambda(u). Such a process NN is called a doubly-stochastic Poisson process. Show that the variance of N(t)N(t) cannot be less than its mean.

(iv) Now consider the process M(t)M(t) obtained by deleting every odd-numbered point in an ordinary Poisson process of rate λ\lambda. Check that

EM(t)=2λt+e2λt14,VarM(t)=4λt8λte2λte4λt+116\mathbb{E} M(t)=\frac{2 \lambda t+e^{-2 \lambda t}-1}{4}, \quad \operatorname{Var} M(t)=\frac{4 \lambda t-8 \lambda t e^{-2 \lambda t}-e^{-4 \lambda t}+1}{16}

Deduce that M(t)M(t) is not a doubly-stochastic Poisson process.