Paper 2, Section I, G

Coding and Cryptography
Part II, 2011

I happen to know that an apparently fair coin actually has probability pp of heads with 1>p>1/21>p>1 / 2. I play a very long sequence of games of heads and tails in which my opponent pays me back twice my stake if the coin comes down heads and takes my stake if the coin comes down tails. I decide to bet a proportion α\alpha of my fortune at the end of the nnth game in the (n+1)(n+1) st game. Determine, giving justification, the value α0\alpha_{0} maximizing the expected logarithm of my fortune in the long term, assuming I use the same α0\alpha_{0} at each game. Can it be actually disadvantageous for me to choose an α<α0\alpha<\alpha_{0} (in the sense that I would be better off not playing)? Can it be actually disadvantageous for me to choose an α>α0\alpha>\alpha_{0} ?

[Moral issues should be ignored.]