Paper 4, Section II,
(a) Define the Moran model and Kingman's -coalescent. State and prove a theorem which describes the relationship between them. [You may use without proof a construction of the Moran model for all .]
(b) Let . Suppose that a population of individuals evolves according to the rules of the Moran model. Assume also that each individual in the population undergoes a mutation at constant rate . Each time a mutation occurs, we assume that the allelic type of the corresponding individual changes to an entirely new type, never seen before in the population. Let be the homozygosity probability, i.e., the probability that two individuals sampled without replacement from the population have the same genetic type. Give an expression for .
(c) Let denote the probability that a sample of size consists of one allelic type (monomorphic population). Show that , where denotes the sum of all the branch lengths in the genealogical tree of the sample - that is, , where is the first time that the genealogical tree of the sample has lineages. Deduce that