Paper 4, Section II, 26K26 K

Applied Probability
Part II, 2012

(a) Define the Moran model and Kingman's nn-coalescent. State and prove a theorem which describes the relationship between them. [You may use without proof a construction of the Moran model for all <t<-\infty<t<\infty.]

(b) Let θ>0\theta>0. Suppose that a population of N2N \geqslant 2 individuals evolves according to the rules of the Moran model. Assume also that each individual in the population undergoes a mutation at constant rate u=θ/(N1)u=\theta /(N-1). Each time a mutation occurs, we assume that the allelic type of the corresponding individual changes to an entirely new type, never seen before in the population. Let p(θ)p(\theta) be the homozygosity probability, i.e., the probability that two individuals sampled without replacement from the population have the same genetic type. Give an expression for p(θ)p(\theta).

(c) Let q(θ)q(\theta) denote the probability that a sample of size nn consists of one allelic type (monomorphic population). Show that q(θ)=E(exp{(θ/2)Ln})q(\theta)=\mathbb{E}\left(\exp \left\{-(\theta / 2) L_{n}\right\}\right), where LnL_{n} denotes the sum of all the branch lengths in the genealogical tree of the sample - that is, Ln=i=2ni(τiτi1)L_{n}=\sum_{i=2}^{n} i\left(\tau_{i}-\tau_{i-1}\right), where τi\tau_{i} is the first time that the genealogical tree of the sample has ii lineages. Deduce that

q(θ)=(n1)!i=1n1(θ+i)q(\theta)=\frac{(n-1) !}{\prod_{i=1}^{n-1}(\theta+i)}