Paper 4, Section II, K

Statistical Modelling
Part II, 2012

Let (X1,Y1),,(Xn,Yn)\left(X_{1}, Y_{1}\right), \ldots,\left(X_{n}, Y_{n}\right) be jointly independent and identically distributed with XiN(0,1)X_{i} \sim N(0,1) and conditional on Xi=x,YiN(xθ,1),i=1,2,,nX_{i}=x, Y_{i} \sim N(x \theta, 1), i=1,2, \ldots, n.

(a) Write down the likelihood of the data (X1,Y1),,(Xn,Yn)\left(X_{1}, Y_{1}\right), \ldots,\left(X_{n}, Y_{n}\right), and find the maximum likelihood estimate θ^\hat{\theta} of θ\theta. [You may use properties of conditional probability/expectation without providing a proof.]

(b) Find the Fisher information I(θ)I(\theta) for a single observation, (X1,Y1)\left(X_{1}, Y_{1}\right).

(c) Determine the limiting distribution of n(θ^θ)\sqrt{n}(\hat{\theta}-\theta). [You may use the result on the asymptotic distribution of maximum likelihood estimators, without providing a proof.]

(d) Give an asymptotic confidence interval for θ\theta with coverage (1α)(1-\alpha) using your answers to (b) and (c).

(e) Define the observed Fisher information. Compare the confidence interval in part (d) with an asymptotic confidence interval with coverage (1α)(1-\alpha) based on the observed Fisher information.

(f) Determine the exact distribution of (i=1nXi2)1/2(θ^θ)\left(\sum_{i=1}^{n} X_{i}^{2}\right)^{1 / 2}(\hat{\theta}-\theta) and find the true coverage probability for the interval in part (e). [Hint. Condition on X1,X2,,XnX_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots, X_{n} and use the following property of conditional expectation: for U,VU, V random vectors, any suitable function gg, and xRx \in \mathbb{R},

P{g(U,V)x}=E[P{g(U,V)xV}].]P\{g(U, V) \leqslant x\}=E[P\{g(U, V) \leqslant x \mid V\}] .]