Paper 1, Section II, 27 K27 \mathrm{~K}

Applied Probability
Part II, 2012

(a) Give the definition of a Poisson process (Nt,t0)\left(N_{t}, t \geqslant 0\right) with rate λ\lambda, using its transition rates. Show that for each t0t \geqslant 0, the distribution of NtN_{t} is Poisson with a parameter to be specified.

Let J0=0J_{0}=0 and let J1,J2,J_{1}, J_{2}, \ldots denote the jump times of (Nt,t0)\left(N_{t}, t \geqslant 0\right). What is the distribution of (Jn+1Jn,n0)?\left(J_{n+1}-J_{n}, n \geqslant 0\right) ? (You do not need to justify your answer.)

(b) Let n1n \geqslant 1. Compute the joint probability density function of (J1,J2,,Jn)\left(J_{1}, J_{2}, \ldots, J_{n}\right) given {Nt=n}\left\{N_{t}=n\right\}. Deduce that, given {Nt=n},(J1,,Jn)\left\{N_{t}=n\right\},\left(J_{1}, \ldots, J_{n}\right) has the same distribution as the nondecreasing rearrangement of nn independent uniform random variables on [0,t][0, t].

(c) Starting from time 0, passengers arrive on platform 9 B9 \mathrm{~B} at King's Cross station, with constant rate λ>0\lambda>0, in order to catch a train due to depart at time t>0t>0. Using the above results, or otherwise, find the expected total time waited by all passengers (the sum of all passengers' waiting times).