Paper 4, Section I, 6C\mathbf{6 C}

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2012

The master equation describing the evolution of the probability P(n,t)P(n, t) that a population has nn members at time tt takes the form

P(n,t)t=b(n1)P(n1,t)[b(n)+d(n)]P(n,t)+d(n+1)P(n+1,t)\frac{\partial P(n, t)}{\partial t}=b(n-1) P(n-1, t)-[b(n)+d(n)] P(n, t)+d(n+1) P(n+1, t)

where the functions b(n)b(n) and d(n)d(n) are both positive for all nn.

From (1) derive the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation in the form

P(x,t)t=x{a1(x)P(x,t)}+122x2{a2(x)P(x,t)}\frac{\partial P(x, t)}{\partial t}=-\frac{\partial}{\partial x}\left\{a_{1}(x) P(x, t)\right\}+\frac{1}{2} \frac{\partial^{2}}{\partial x^{2}}\left\{a_{2}(x) P(x, t)\right\}

making clear any assumptions that you make and giving explicit forms for a1(x)a_{1}(x) and a2(x)a_{2}(x).

Assume that (2) has a steady state solution Ps(x)P_{s}(x) and that a1(x)a_{1}(x) is a decreasing function of xx with a single zero at x0x_{0}. Under what circumstances may Ps(x)P_{s}(x) be approximated by a Gaussian centred at x0x_{0} and what is the corresponding estimate of the variance?