Paper 2, Section I, 6C\mathbf{6 C}

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2012

Consider a birth-death process in which the birth rate per individual is λ\lambda and the death rate per individual in a population of size nn is βn\beta n.

Let P(n,t)P(n, t) be the probability that the population has size nn at time tt. Write down the master equation for the system, giving an expression for P(n,t)/t\partial P(n, t) / \partial t.

Show that

ddtn=λnβn2\frac{d}{d t}\langle n\rangle=\lambda\langle n\rangle-\beta\left\langle n^{2}\right\rangle

where .\langle.\rangle denotes the mean.

Deduce that in a steady state nλ/β\langle n\rangle \leqslant \lambda / \beta.