Define what it means for an estimator θ^ of an unknown parameter θ to be consistent.
Let Sn be a sequence of random real-valued continuous functions defined on R such that, as n→∞,Sn(θ) converges to S(θ) in probability for every θ∈R, where S:R→R is non-random. Suppose that for some θ0∈R and every ε>0 we have
S(θ0−ε)<0<S(θ0+ε),
and that Sn has exactly one zero θ^n for every n∈N. Show that θ^n→θ0 as n→∞, and deduce from this that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) based on observations X1,…,Xn from a N(θ,1),θ∈R model is consistent.
Now consider independent observations X1,…,Xn of bivariate normal random vectors
Xi=(X1i,X2i)T∼N2[(μi,μi)T,σ2I2],i=1,…,n,
where μi∈R,σ>0 and I2 is the 2×2 identity matrix. Find the MLE μ^=(μ^1,…,μ^n)T of μ=(μ1,…,μn)T and show that the MLE of σ2 equals
σ^2=n1i=1∑nsi2,si2=21[(X1i−μ^i)2+(X2i−μ^i)2]
Show that σ^2 is not consistent for estimating σ2. Explain briefly why the MLE fails in this model.
[You may use the Law of Large Numbers without proof.]