Paper 4, Section II, J
Part II, 2016
Consider a decision problem with parameter space . Define the concepts of a Bayes decision rule and of a least favourable prior.
Suppose is a prior distribution on such that the Bayes risk of the Bayes rule equals , where is the risk function associated to the decision problem. Prove that is least favourable.
Now consider a random variable arising from the binomial distribution , where . Construct a least favourable prior for the squared risk . [You may use without proof the fact that the Bayes rule for quadratic risk is given by the posterior mean.]